Monsoon Update #02

MONSOON UPDATE #02:
There r different and contradictive news about la nina at different levels, here is the pwd's version on it as of today for coming months, it may need review in June. The Australian met, says there r 50/50 chances between la nina and neutral enso to fallow this el nino, though in there past fortnight report and before them, they were putting la nina chances at 40% to occur, now they rose it to 50%. The worth mentioning difference between past report and this 30th report is, the further cooling of subsurface waters below western Pacific and central Pacific with some rapid eastward movement plus squeezing of warm anamolies below east Pacific, remember that the warm sub surface anamolies under east Pacific had 150 m depth and waters were 7 c warmer than normal during peak around October 2015 now they have squeeze to 50 m with only 1 c above normal temperatures. The other indicators like soi, trade winds, cloudiness near date line, ssts etc r consistent with decreasing el nino. The iod is likely to remain neutral during ms with slight possibility of negative in August 2016, though the models r usually not good enough to forecast iod for nothern hemisphere summer, mainly because of lack of data like sub surface waters, we have normally seen in past that its extremely difficult to predict iod untill the full establishment of cross equatorial flow.